Pandemic Modelling

During the Covid-19 pandemic we starter to adapt an agent-based simulation framework from UK towards the Germany as well as included vacinations and different virus types to the simulation. In this context, we studied the effect of school closures as well as the role of statistical uncertainties on the infection rates on a local level. 

The Impact of School Closings on the Covid-19 Spread in Germany

The effect of school closures on the spread of COVID-19 has been discussed among experts and the general public since those measures have been taken only a few months after the start of the pandemic in 2020. Within this study, the JuneGermany framework, is used to quantify the impact of school closures in the German state Rhineland Palatinate using an agent-based simulation approach. We found that the simulations predicts a reduction of the number of infections, hospitalizations as well as death by a factor of 2.5 compared to scenarios, where no school closures are enforced, during the second wave between October 2020 and February 2021

© Matthias Schott
Eine Wissenschaftlerin und ein Wissenschaftler arbeiten hinter einer Glasfassade und mischen Chemikalien mit Großgeräten.
© Matthias Schott

What is statistical effects and what is local politics?

During the COVID-19 pandemic, a large variance of incidence rates on local level, e.g. cities and districts, within one country has been observed, while the same non-pharmaceutical measures have been taken to control the spread of the virus. This variance in incidence rates triggered the question, if the spread of incidence rates can be explained only by statistical processes and the local population statistics or if indeed other factors, e.g. local information campaigns, have to be considered. Within this paper we study the expected spread of incidence rates in the German State of Rhineland Palatinate during the second COVID-19 wave using an agent based simulation and find that the spread of incidence rates can be solely explained by population statistics and further statical effects.

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