The fundamental properties of the spread of SARS-CoV-2 have been known since early on. However, it remains difficult to this day to exactly quantify the impact of small or short-term changes in social behavior. The diversity of social behavior poses extreme challenges due to the variety of conditions and temporal changes of social interactions. In our study we make use of the UEFA European Soccer Championship 2020 (EURO2020, which took place in June and July 2021) as a laboratory for assigning COVID-19 cases to short-term behavioural changes. A team of researchers including Philip Bechtle from the Physikalisches Institut at the University of Bonn have found that the impact of behavioral changes due to such an event depends strongly on the epidemiological conditions at the start of the event. This quantification is only possible due to the availability of highly resolved data which underlines the importance of excellent data availability in future outbreaks and pandemics as well. For more detailed information, see the link to the paper and a commenting blog post.
Impact of the EURO2020 soccer championship on the spread of COVID-19 Impact of the EURO2020 soccer championship on the spread of COVID-19
How can a large-scale, multinational social "experiment" — the UEFA European Soccer Championship 2020 — be used as a laboratory for assigning COVID-19 cases to short-term behavioural changes, and to understand how epidemiological conditions determine the impact of such changes?
Analysis of infection rates
- The result of the Bayesian analysis of infection rates of male and females separately show the impact of the EURO2020 on COVID-19 infections.
© Impact of the EURO2020 soccer championship on the spread of COVID-19, fig. 3 (https://www.nature.com/articles/s41467-022-35512-x)
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